NHL Picks: April Review

The model saw an uptick in correct predictions from May, hitting at a 62.3% rate. This number is higher than the expected success rate and will likely drop as the season draws to a close.

The bread and butter of the model, the month of April was uneventful for picks that reach the 12% threshold. 4 games met the criteria through the month for a 1-3 record. This has resulted in a -1.6 unit loss, dropping our season units to +5.0.

As stated in the May review, the quantity of games that meet the criteria moving forward will be low.

Analyzing the winning picks per their predicted win probability, the zone of 65-70% remains profitable, adding to a profitable month of May using this criteria. The ROI is low, but the success in this category for two consecutive months is very promising, and will likely factor into model plays next season.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: