Model Statistics Glossary

Hello again! With the growing use of advanced stats within the hockey community and subsequent information overload of key terms, this article will be a growing list of buzzwords to become familiar with and add to your vocabulary. Many of these terms are used in the prediction model while many are not. For the integrity of the model, the statistics used to predict winners will not be explicitly identified.

Wins above replacement (WAR): The most digestible stat in the advanced statistics community, WAR exists to paint a full picture (or as close to it as you can get with hockey) of the value a player provides in the form of wins. A player with a “0” WAR provides replacement level contribution to their team. Meanwhile, the Connor Mcdavid’s of the world provide 5+ Wins above replacement in a given 82 game season. Below is a handy chart to use as reference when evaluating players with WAR. (Chart provided by Hockey-Graphs.com)

Rates for: a statistic that aims to explain how much of a teams expected goals for is a result of the quantity of shots they take. The higher amount of shot attempts a team takes in comparison to league average, the higher their rates for will be.

Rates Against: the opposite to Rates for, the amount of shot attempts that is taken against a team (On a per game basis) that makes up the expected goals against for a team. The higher quantity of shot attempts against, the higher the rates against number will be. A higher rates against is not ideal to a winning team.

Quality for: the number of shots that a team takes in high danger areas that contributes to their overall expected goals for. The more chances a team takes in the slot and in high danger areas, the better their Quality for metric will be.

Quality against: the opposite of Quality for. The more high danger chances a team gives to their opposition, the worse their quality against metric will be.

Shooting ability (metric): The shooting ability metric measures a teams actual goal total and their expected goals for over 60 minutes. A team that scores more goals than their expected goal total will receive a higher grade on the shooting ability metric.

Save Ability (metric): much like shooting ability, this stat takes a goalie (or teams) expected goals against minus their actual goals against over 60 minutes. If a team or goalie has a higher save ability grade, it means they save more goals than expected.

PP xGF/60: this is the expected goals on the powrplay for a team, over a 60 minute time frame. A more predicative measure of seeing how potent a powerplay is than Powerplay percentage.

SH xGA/60: similar to PP xGF/60, measures how many expected goals a team will give up while shorthanded over a 60 minute time frame.

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